My First Op-ed
Here’s a guest column I wrote last Friday for The Hilltop Monitor, Jewell’s newspaper.
Keep Paying Attention
Jake Williams
5 November 2008
It’s over…finally!
This morning, I left my room without being bombarded by ads, stickers, pollsters, and volunteers. Then I realized that political scientists are doomed to follow elections till the end of time. While the whole world is through watching our historic election, Americans should not simply retire to the couch and enjoy watching Jeopardy without the nuisance of political ads. Important elections are happening all over the world next year, elections that promise to affect our own country in a big way. So don’t snap out of election-mode just yet.
Israel is holding an early parliamentary election on 10 February 2009 after Acting Prime Minister Tzipi Livni failed to form a new governing coalition. Former-PM Binyamin Netanyahu appears to be leading in early projections as he touts a qualification now familiar to American voters: experience. His victory might bring a revival of the “three nos” that colored his administration from 1996 to 1999, thus, protracting negotiations for peace with Palestinians and Syria. A Netanyahu victory may also mean a more hawkish policy towards Iran, clashing with Obama’s diplomatic approach to Iranian proliferation and straining American-Israeli relations. Even if Livni wins in a landslide, she will still have to pander to the right wing to form a government. Either way, the prospects for peace don’t look promising.
The Iranian presidential election, scheduled for 12 June 2009, could prove that “Islamo-facism” may not be as strong in Iran as some Americans think. In the parliamentary election last March, reformist parties critical of current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made notable gains that might make his reelection bid more challenging. He faces growing criticism on economic issues from the parliament, which impeached one of his cabinet members on Tuesday for faking a degree from Oxford. After this 10th impeachment, Ahmadinejad’s cabinet is now one impeachment away from a no-confidence vote. Even if Ahmadinejad wins, growing opposition may cause him to tone down his belligerent foreign policy to remain safely in power. We can only hope.
Ukraine’s next presidential election–to be held next October–could be just as intense as the 2006 election that almost killed current President Viktor Yushchenko. Recall the accusations that Russian agents poisoned Yushchenko with lethal amounts of dioxins. As Russia and the US continue to exchange diplomatic blows in Eurasia, expect Ukraine to become a key factor for the future balance of power. For instance, Ukraine offered to participate in the joint missile defense network that has increased tensions between Russia and the US. If opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko runs and wins, Ukrainian-Russian relations may improve while the US loses an ally. On the other hand, Russia may welcome the prospect of another pro-US president with something more sinister than a fruit basket. Personally, I hope the Ukrainian Beer Lovers Party sweeps the whole thing.
So keep an eye on these countries as Obama begins to work out his foreign policy strategy next year. While we celebrate our own democracy in action, don’t forget that voters everywhere are making decisions that will impact our own interactions with the world.
Yay, cool! You can have the rest of your stars back now. *******.
Writeanewblogggggg.